Renewables

[radtech497]

Assuming the peak of conventional petroleum production occurred a decade ago (ca. 35 A.T.) and that the global economic crisis that began in 2007 C.E. is at least somewhat in consequence of that milestone being reached, then the next decade or so is likely to be ...interesting (in the sense of the Chinese curse). Actually, the "interesting" period is likely to last much longer, since a transition period leading to the widespread adoption of an alternative fuel has yet to begin in any meaningful way.

If "peak oil" was the only, or even just the most pressing, crisis to be faced within the next few decades, then it seems likely some sort of "solution" might plausibly be implemented with minimum disruption to the status quo. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Crises in climate change, soil depletion, food production, and the availability of potable water all loom large in the coming decades, threatening a synergistic danse macabre. Add to this the (generally negative) effects of these crises on the global economy caused by shortfalls in productivity and capital as governments try to cope, and the situation becomes significantly less than rosy. As it turns out, the impending retirements of large numbers of highly skilled personnel without a ready source of replacements, only serves to exacerbate the difficulties already present.

Will this "perfect storm" of overlapping and (in many instances) interlocking crises result in the collapse of civilization? Probably not, though what emerges on the other side of these trying times will probably be unrecognizable from the vantage point of the early 21st century (C.E.). Depending on the wisdom (or lack thereof) shown by the world's political and economic leaders during the coming decades, the scenario can range in severity from being "merely" unpleasant to truly catastrophic. The more time spent in hopeful procrastination, the greater the challenges to be overcome and the greater the likelihood that desperate measures will backfire and make things worse. Given the current state of the global response to these crises, it becomes apparent that all the workable solutions in the universe are worthless if they aren't implemented or are delayed beyond the time when their implementation can effect useful outcomes.

Radtech497