Renewables

[kch49er]

@kch49er: I agree that all these technologies are viable in a post-peak-oil universe. However, since oil either has peaked or will do so w/in a decade, as evidenced by the table I posted above, this creates a problem: It is very late in the day; as the Hirsch Report pointed out five years ago ;adapting to peak oil without drastic social disruptions requires major changes to begin twenty years before the peak. We missed that chance, and so there are going to be drastic social disruptions. Said disruptions will make moves to sustain industrial civilization on renewables impossible and thus cause drastically reduced living standards. This combined with mass migrations etc. will cause a centuries-long societal collapse.

I agree our current society is unsutainable on renwables, but I dont follow that an industrial civilisation is unsustainable or that the massive social disruption which is inevetiable would lead to drastically reduced living standards, a shift sure but does that reduce living standards?

Is mass migrations a bad thing? Sure unplanned,uncontrallable ones, but the US has ghost mining towns, maybe some current towns should be abandoned as unstainable. There is no cost/benefit anaylsis it's just assumed it's better to stay.

I've only had a chance to briefly glance at that report but a couple of things glare out at me.
There's no suggestion of something like Le Shuttle roll on/off lorries via an electric lineas a way of shifting freight to the rail, electrification,trams and trolleycars,canal freight and journey shifting is suprisingly left out, is this becuase the US has a much wider network, and population so loses a lot of the benefit to electrifcation or becuase it smacks too much of socialism. Even if not viable I'd of thought there would be consideration.

The UK managed £800 million for more railway electrifcation in the middile of the recession,if there was more renwable electric availble there would probably be a greater demand for it.

Why not abandon the five day week? Shifting to a seven day week (especially for industry) and working in line with the sun would be a major social change but needen't worsen the standard of living you could work the same hours and make solar power more attractive for industrial process as well as reducing bills, if business was only open during daylight, they wouldn't need as much on lighting bills for a start Sure hospitals and others would be an exception but they have to work at midnight now when most things are cosed,we'd get used to it in the way we get use to that. I guess the reason is there doesn't seem to be enough of a demand for the social change, though when fossil fuel availbilty is at the level of the three day week we might consider it.

If we are past the point that its possibile why is Iceland in the psotion it is in? Early enough investment? Fortunate geography/population density? Or did I miss something?

A lot of the African areas might be better placed to weather this out than werk are, walking and cycling is more common, the smaller scale redues transit,less energy is needed,solar insolation is better,,more use to intermittent energy and so forth, I guess the critical thing is the food. I'm reminded of the view of the dark ages despite the east flourishing