Renewables

[xsampa]

@ian: Fracking may not be worth it.
The issue is that to transition from a old energy source to a new one, you must have enough of the old one to keep society running for the time being until the new one gets its infrastructure, and the amount produced mustn't decrease. Unfortunately, oil either has peaked or will peak very soon, as evidenced by this table of projections from the Hirsch Report:

Projected Date

Source

2006–2007 Bakhtiari
2007–2009 Simmons
After 2007 Skrebowski
Before 2009 Deffeyes
Before 2010 Goodstein
Around 2010 Campbell
After 2010 World Energy Council
2010–2020 Laherrere
2016 EIA (Nominal)
After 2020 CERA
2025 or later Shell

And here are its conclusions:

Conclusions[edit]

The report came to the following conclusions:
World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt. World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum and decline thereafter.
Some forecasters project peaking within a decade; others contend it will occur later.
Peaking will happen, but the timing is uncertain.

Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly the U.S. Over the past century, the U.S. economy has been shaped by the availability of low-cost oil.
The economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.
Aggressive fuel efficiency and substitute fuel production could provide substantial mitigation.

Oil peaking presents a unique challenge. Without massive mitigation, the problem will be pervasive and long-term.
Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary.
Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.

The problem is liquid fuels for transportation. The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades.
Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible.
Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels.

Mitigation efforts will require substantial time. Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.

Both supply and demand will require attention. Sustained high oil prices will cause forced demand reduction (recession and unemployment).
Production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels can and must be provided.
The production of substitute liquid fuels is technically and economically feasible.

It is a matter of risk management. The peaking of world oil production is a classic risk management problem.
Mitigation efforts earlier than required may be premature, if peaking is long delayed.
On the other hand, if peaking is soon, failure to initiate mitigation could be extremely damaging.

Government intervention will be required. The economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.
Expediency may require major changes to existing administrative and regulatory procedures.

Economic upheaval is not inevitable. Without mitigation, the peaking of world oil production will cause major economic upheaval.
Given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.
New technologies will help, but on a longer time scale.

More information is needed. Effective action to combat peaking requires better understanding of the issues.
Risks and possible benefits of possible mitigation actions need to be examined.