12-13-2023, 05:27 AM
I think there's a bit of disasterbation around solar flares and the threat to Earth. The solar storms that have hit Earth in the 20th and 21st Centuries only caused some inconveniences. The 1989 storm, the Bastille Day storm, and the Halloween storm caused glitches to some modern systems, and weren't global in effect.
The problems caused by solar flares to Earthbound system is primarily developed in long conductors, i.e., power lines. (Above the atmosphere, charged particles are a direct problem to electronics, but such electronics are typically hardened.) This tends to manifest as voltage instability in electrical grids, which is unpleasant for everything plugged in at the time, and damaging high voltage transformers.
Basically, solar flares attack electrical systems like lightning strikes. They drive lots of current through conductors, and they go for long conductors like power lines, transformers, and some antennae. Flares don't magically erase data or cripple electronics, they create large electrical surges.
Noting where the trouble originates, you don't need a dramatic LaGrange mag shield to protect Earth from large flares. It takes relatively little to protect against flares (and EMP). The US figures it can harden its electrical grid against mega-flares (and EMP) for $10 to $30 billion, which is about what the federal government loses as loose coins between sofa cushions every year. Some steps:
0. Get up early warning satellites and operate solar observatories.
1. Given a flare warning, utility operators could shut down their most vulnerable, least protected grid elements. (In fact, the threats are likely regional, not global, so observatories would offer forecast warnings to specific areas. NOAA does this now.)
2. Utility operators can add some energy sponges to the grid, like flywheels, to soak up excess current.
3. Avoid certain types of transformers ("saturated transformers") that are the most vulnerable. It is possible to really harden transformers.
4. Dividing large electrical grids into more fault-tolerant, nonsynchronous sectors (e.g., isolated by direct current links) will help block cascading failures.
5. Having redundant black-start capability built into the grid will help - keep those dams and diesel generators in good shape. (Quick-starting generators will also help balance loads on an unstable grid.)
6. On a small scale: surge protectors and circuit breakers.
7. On a small scale: unplug your gear.
Many of those safety features will work without warning, too.
Your typical cellphone would not be bothered by a super flare unless it was caught plugged into the grid, and cars shouldn't care much unless they were also getting a grid charge at the time.
For discussions on hardening, see:
GAO report on hardening against mega-flares
Utah's assessment see page 7.
The problems caused by solar flares to Earthbound system is primarily developed in long conductors, i.e., power lines. (Above the atmosphere, charged particles are a direct problem to electronics, but such electronics are typically hardened.) This tends to manifest as voltage instability in electrical grids, which is unpleasant for everything plugged in at the time, and damaging high voltage transformers.
Basically, solar flares attack electrical systems like lightning strikes. They drive lots of current through conductors, and they go for long conductors like power lines, transformers, and some antennae. Flares don't magically erase data or cripple electronics, they create large electrical surges.
Noting where the trouble originates, you don't need a dramatic LaGrange mag shield to protect Earth from large flares. It takes relatively little to protect against flares (and EMP). The US figures it can harden its electrical grid against mega-flares (and EMP) for $10 to $30 billion, which is about what the federal government loses as loose coins between sofa cushions every year. Some steps:
0. Get up early warning satellites and operate solar observatories.
1. Given a flare warning, utility operators could shut down their most vulnerable, least protected grid elements. (In fact, the threats are likely regional, not global, so observatories would offer forecast warnings to specific areas. NOAA does this now.)
2. Utility operators can add some energy sponges to the grid, like flywheels, to soak up excess current.
3. Avoid certain types of transformers ("saturated transformers") that are the most vulnerable. It is possible to really harden transformers.
4. Dividing large electrical grids into more fault-tolerant, nonsynchronous sectors (e.g., isolated by direct current links) will help block cascading failures.
5. Having redundant black-start capability built into the grid will help - keep those dams and diesel generators in good shape. (Quick-starting generators will also help balance loads on an unstable grid.)
6. On a small scale: surge protectors and circuit breakers.
7. On a small scale: unplug your gear.
Many of those safety features will work without warning, too.
Your typical cellphone would not be bothered by a super flare unless it was caught plugged into the grid, and cars shouldn't care much unless they were also getting a grid charge at the time.
For discussions on hardening, see:
GAO report on hardening against mega-flares
Utah's assessment see page 7.
Mike Miller, Materials Engineer
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"Everbody's always in favor of saving Hitler's brain, but when you put it in the body of a great white shark, oh, suddenly you've gone too far." -- Professor Farnsworth, Futurama
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"Everbody's always in favor of saving Hitler's brain, but when you put it in the body of a great white shark, oh, suddenly you've gone too far." -- Professor Farnsworth, Futurama