02-16-2014, 11:05 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2014, 11:09 AM by omega_tyrant.)
(02-15-2014, 09:45 PM)stevebowers Wrote: Interesting that they use the same date for the creation of AI as we do. That probably means they used the same primary sources as Anders did when he wrote the earliest timeline.
To be honest I think 2045 is a bit optimistic. I'd be surprised if there was human equivalent AI by 2045, but by 2070 I think there should be a greater than even chance of very advanced AI systems emerging, and by 2100 it would be very surprising if there were no human level aioids of some sort.
Note that I don't propose that we change the timeline in any way, at least not yet; but we should be aware that the 2045 prediction is both widespread and optimistic (some might say pessimistic).
I agree about the 2045 date. I think this comes from Kurzweil, who set this date back in 1999 in the Age of Spiritual Machines, if I'm not mistaken. I'm no expert in the field, but from what I've been reading, so many unexpected challenges have come up since that time. Not the least of which is the realization from many in the field that "human mind equivalency" does not necessarily come from a set number of ops/sec being achieved, as Kurzweil would like the public to believe. The 2045 year is out of date, IMO, and needs to be pushed back to account for the new challenges/political situations/economic slowdowns/Moore's Law slowdown, etc., all of which could delay the advent of AGI by years or decades. This is just my opinion, and I would not dream of attempting to coerce OA into changing the date right now.