02-15-2014, 09:45 PM
Interesting that they use the same date for the creation of AI as we do. That probably means they used the same primary sources as Anders did when he wrote the earliest timeline.
To be honest I think 2045 is a bit optimistic. I'd be surprised if there was human equivalent AI by 2045, but by 2070 I think there should be a greater than even chance of very advanced AI systems emerging, and by 2100 it would be very surprising if there were no human level aioids of some sort.
Note that I don't propose that we change the timeline in any way, at least not yet; but we should be aware that the 2045 prediction is both widespread and optimistic (some might say pessimistic).
To be honest I think 2045 is a bit optimistic. I'd be surprised if there was human equivalent AI by 2045, but by 2070 I think there should be a greater than even chance of very advanced AI systems emerging, and by 2100 it would be very surprising if there were no human level aioids of some sort.
Note that I don't propose that we change the timeline in any way, at least not yet; but we should be aware that the 2045 prediction is both widespread and optimistic (some might say pessimistic).