Could a gamma ray burst destroy life on Earth?

[Avalancheon]

Do you mean you think such high power GRBs are more likely, or less likely?

In my opinion, the probability of the 1000 KJ scenario (high energy) is being underestimated. At least when compared to the 100 and 10 KJ scenarios (medium and low energy). Its probability is much higher than 4%.

That is especially apparent when you understand that their study focused on a GRB at a distance of 2 kiloparsecs. My scenario had the erupting GRB at a distance of 2.45 kiloparsecs.

This conclusion is unaffected by the 'metallicity bias', I.E., the scarcity of elements heavier than hydrogen and helium. Why? Because if a GRB were ever to erupt within 2 kiloparsecs of us, then the Earth will almost invariably be subjected to a high energy fluence.


But to be fair, my scenario of a 76 MJ fluence isn't exactly realistic. Thats because not all of the energy from an erupting GRB is focused into the jets. It was an 'upper estimate' of mine.