10-18-2013, 06:55 AM
Bit of a necropost but flicking through my past threads I realised I never replied to this, sorry 
Regarding phasing in I think it will happen more gradually than most posts and conversations suggest. Whilst I'm fairly confident (and hopeful) that at some point 10-30 years from now a fully self driving car as good as the average human will be possible I doubt that things will be the same as now up until then. Rather all the advances in automation that companies are experimenting with now will trickle into average cars. Certain cars now can steer if they detect lane drift, break if they detect a collision and assist with parking. That kind of thing will most likely become standard in cars over the next decade. After that we could see further additions in high end cars (filtering down over time) like fully automatic parking, full lane keeping, car training etc.
Essentially if we propose that the worlds first commercial self driving car will be available in 2033 then it won't seem like much of a jump from the drivers of the time. This is because for an average driver a car does a lot of the work anyway, parking for them, driving on the motorway, avoiding collisions etc. Therefore the demand wont really be that niche.
And as for workers relying on driving yes they will be out of the job but that isn't a bad thing so long as the social institutions and policies are in place to ensure that they can get another job (including training if necessary) and are fully taken care of in the meantime.
Regarding phasing in I think it will happen more gradually than most posts and conversations suggest. Whilst I'm fairly confident (and hopeful) that at some point 10-30 years from now a fully self driving car as good as the average human will be possible I doubt that things will be the same as now up until then. Rather all the advances in automation that companies are experimenting with now will trickle into average cars. Certain cars now can steer if they detect lane drift, break if they detect a collision and assist with parking. That kind of thing will most likely become standard in cars over the next decade. After that we could see further additions in high end cars (filtering down over time) like fully automatic parking, full lane keeping, car training etc.
Essentially if we propose that the worlds first commercial self driving car will be available in 2033 then it won't seem like much of a jump from the drivers of the time. This is because for an average driver a car does a lot of the work anyway, parking for them, driving on the motorway, avoiding collisions etc. Therefore the demand wont really be that niche.
And as for workers relying on driving yes they will be out of the job but that isn't a bad thing so long as the social institutions and policies are in place to ensure that they can get another job (including training if necessary) and are fully taken care of in the meantime.