article about Nanotechnology on rationalwiki

[stevebowers]

I've noticed that futurology (for want of a better term) is dividing into several camps; there are people who are optimistic, or even hyperoptimistic about the outcome of certain developing technologies; Kurzweil is very optimistic about AI and uploading, for example, Aubrey Grey is optimistic about longevity, and Sonny White is optimistic about warp drive. Then there are other commentators who look at the same data and express scepticism, even cynicism, about these speculative technologies. Yet another group, including some big names like Stephen Hawking, are fearful about the consequences of advanced technology, such as human interactions with AI, or human interactions with aliens. A few, more optimistic souls are more enthusiastic about these prospects and denounce Hawking and co as scaremongers.

I think, in many ways, they are all wrong, and yet they are all partly right. Many, or most, of the speculative technologies we have discussed will come about in some way; it will take longer than some people expect, but maybe not long enough (in some cases) for social and cultural factors to keep pace with the new developments. The future won't be just one thing - it won't just be a tyranny of hi-tech oppression, or a post-apocalyptic wasteland, or a paradise of automation; but if our civilisation continues to expand and diversify, it could include all of those things, and more.