Transhumanism: How do we know?

[stevebowers]

My question was meant to ask how do we know our predictions for transhuman aimed technologies isn't going to be looked back on as childish...

Well, they probably will be. We are constructing a mostly optimistic view of the future in OA; it does involve the Great Expulsion and other nasty events, and humans are relegated to subordinate creatures, but it is optimistic compared to Eclipse Phase, for instance.

The reality could be much stranger, or much nastier, and might be both. Or society could easily collapse before any substantial transhuman technology is developed; this would at least give us one possible answer to the Fermi Paradox.

...as we now do when we see Robby the robot or even the Terminator.

Both of these robots rely on the development of human-like AI that can function inside a mobile robot. In the case of Robby this involves incorporating a human-like AI inside a very primitive 1950s style robot. Instead we are seeing large numbers of quite sophisticated non-humanoid robotic devices used in industry, combined with very competent but non-sentient computer systems. Extrapolating this into the near future we can perhaps predict a world filled with highly sophisticated automated systems and very competent user-friendly computing, but not a single humanoid robot in sight.

When and if we get human-equivalent AI, there will almost certainly be measures in place to restrict its access to mobile robots - if we have managed to create an 'AI in a box', we won't want to give that box arms and legs until it has proved it is safe.