"Weeding" the Timeline & Early Timeline Contribution Guidelines?

[QwertyYerty]

The one issue I have with removing these (And why I didn't remove them initially) is that most of them refer to articles in the EG (Static, various smoking/tobacco related articles). The European Federation is a part of the timeline, although I don't think we have a full on EG about it.

One of the criteria I used when weeding this section of the timeline was that the entries removed seemed to have no real connection to anything in the EG.

These entries don't have a terribly strong connection, but they do have one.

This doesn't mean I'm saying we can't remove them, but are we sure we should do so?

Todd

The problem is that the information timeline is going to be the first one everyone reads when looking at the main timeline. If the timeline is too long, it will turn people off.

[Drashner1]

The problem is that the information timeline is going to be the first one everyone reads when looking at the main timeline. If the timeline is too long, it will turn people off.

What proof do you have that 'everyone' approaches the OA website in the same way or that they all start from the Information Age? We don't track that kind of data, and you seem to be indicating that you do. How are you doing that exactly?

I think a more likely state of affairs is that different people approach the website and setting in different ways (something evidenced by both my experience (I barely paid any attention to the timeline when I first came here) and by what is indicated by the questions and comments we've gotten over the years from new members). Some will start with the timeline, others will start from the Technology or Galactography sections, and others will start from somewhere else. People are different and have different interests, after all.

Beyond that, some people might find the information in the timeline very interesting and not think it's too long at all. It might not be to your personal taste, but that's not an argument in itself for getting rid of some number of the entries there.

If we are to thin down the timeline, then it is not going to be a process of mass removal based on a theory that there are 'too many' entries in it. It is going to need to be one of considering individual entries and whether or not they add to the setting and/or relate (or might eventually relate) to existing EG entries or the like.

Somewhat more time consuming, but necessary to the overall quality of the project.

With that in mind, I'd suggest that you point to specific entries on the timeline that you think might be consolidated with others or that would improve the project if they were removed - rather than arguing (as you seem to be doing,perhaps I'm misunderstanding) that we need to do a mass removal of entries from the timeline (or at least this part of the timeline) simply because there are 'too many' of them.

Todd

[QwertyYerty]

Your right.

I think it would be more productive to focus on what should be in the information age timeline thank what should be removed from it. I know that there is an overall description on the page, but I think we should shift the discussion on what the information age timeline should contain in a radical hard sci fi world in present OA. Personally I favor being more "hard" in the information era since I feel we don't have very much creative room in the near term without contradicting RL events regularly.

However it has become apparent to me that forecasting in the next 300 years (and to some extent the next 100 years) is borline impossible. There is more certainty implied in forecasting than in projecting. I now feel projecting is closer to the sprit of the project, whereas earlier I was leaning towards forcasting when editing the early timeline.

I have an idea on moving some of the genetic advancements somewhat later in the information age to give them somewhat more plausibity. One of the things I admire about the OA project is a commitment to "radical" hard science fiction. I like to make the early timeline more "hard" since we have a great deal of flexibility to alter the early timeline without significant changes to the post Sundering timeline. Part of me really wants to believe that the early 500 years in the timeline will be our actual future.

What I want is some clarification on how hard the early timeline, especially the information age, should be compared to the rest of the timeline.

[Drashner1]

If by 'hard' you mean 'hard science' then that is a fuzzy concept that means different things to different people. We've gone around and around that particular mulberry bush multiple times and have moved various items on the timeline (including genetic advancements) multiple times.

Genetic advancements are particularly tricky both because the field is relatively young and we don't know what hard limits (equivalent to strength of materials or laws of physics) there are for it, except in a general way. So, based on past experience, this seems likely to (again) boil down to one person/group of people saying X thing is implausible (to them) or doesn't fit into their vision of the future (or this particular chunk of the future) with little real world science to back up the assertion. And around the mulberry bush we go again.

If you can field arguments about plausibility based on professional qualifications we may be more inclined to consider them. But I'm not sure what you do out in the RL, so can't say with certainty one way or the other.

I'm not really concerned with contradicting RL events regularly when speaking of something most of a century away. So how do you propose to set a limit there? We have historically tried to keep everything before the 22nd century CE vague, but in the last 5 years or so there has been a great deal of interest among many members (yourself included based on what you say in this post) in the early timeline - and it seems implausible that nothing much happens for 100yrs and then suddenly we see enough tech advances to get us to the pre-Technocalypse level civ in a period with whole century cut out of it.

Finally, there is the point that OA is fiction - so to some degree some events are going to happen because we say they are going to happen. We are willing to try to be plausible whenever possible - but not willing to put ourselves at the mercy of every person who has a different idea of what that means or what is to their taste - that way lies madness:p

Looking at the last several posts, there seems to be a lot of talking in generalities and not so much in the way of specifics - which isn't going to get us anywhere.

Please provide some specific proposals for how you would like us to adjust the timeline and why (note that the why needs to be specific, not just 'I just don't consider thing X to be plausible' with nothing else backing up the assertion).

Todd

[stevebowers]

My daughter (currently doing a PhD in genetics) is finding it very hard to get the expected results from her (very minor) tweaks. I can understand why many people think that advances in genetics will be slow to come, and difficult. However I find it quite plausible that the biological sciences will progress significantly in the next two or three centuries, more significantly perhaps than propulsion technology or particle physics for instance, simply because the phase space of biological possibilities is quite large, and experiments in this field have a relatively low cost.

The danger is that low cost, unregulated experiments could lead to artificial plagues, or organisms that are less-than-optimised for independent survival but which are still economically important. Already many cultivated species need a very specific environment in order to thrive. Another very real problem is social resistance to genetically engineered organisms, something we touch on in the timeline but will probably slow down development considerably. Over-regulation could be just as bad as under-regulation.

[Rynn]

My (ongoing) PhD is in nanomedicine and my background is biology; IRL I'm hugely skeptical that we'll see significant human genetic engineering or the wilder aspects of pop-sci nanotech (at least in near-mid future sense). But OA is a transhumanist worldbuilding project. Alongside the commitment to plausibility is the assumption that technological progress will accelerate, largely due to AI and robotic automation.

I think we should be wary of treating OA (or any sci-fi for that matter) as some sort of future prediction project. It's not, it's for entertainment and interest. Obviously we want things to be realistic and plausible where possible but we have to remember that all fictional universes have some fundamental "what if..." assumptions baked in.

That aside I don't find genetic engineering in the early timeline totally implausible. We have minor tweaks (which could be anything) in the near future but the practice doesn't really take off until the 2100s when various advances in disparate fields come together to make phenotype modelling and total gene therapy possible. We could probably do with writing in some more "disasters", like tweaks with deleterious effects that don't become apparent until old age or generations later. Or genemod conflict disorders. But I'm not concerned about the trend overall.

If I have time later I'll post more detailed thoughts on the timeline.

[Rynn]

And this is the Information Age (100 years)

Thanks for posting this, now we're on the same page I feel. Thoughts below, if I've not mentioned an entry it's because I don't have a problem with it.

31 - infamous September 11 terrorist attack on New York Twin Towers and Pentagon changes the shape of the political climate for the next half century.

I don't mind it this is cut given that the growth of the security-state in the west isn't a trend we touch on in OA.

33 - Contact with Pioneer 10 lost (February 2003 c.e.)

Oddly specific for a minor historical event, don't mind cutting.

34 - US military uses Predator remotely piloted aircraft (UAV / RPV) for anti-terrorist operations.

This is quite specific and perhaps could be replaced by a more generic observation that fits with later entries i.e. "Robotics play an increasing role in warfare, particularly anti-terrorist operations"

45 - Dawn spacecraft enters orbit around Ceres.

46 - New Horizons probe reaches Pluto.

I'm not sure we need so many entries on probe missions that aren't that revolutionary.

50 - Internet users in every country of the Earth are forming new cultural, political and economic groupings.

Could probably do with cutting, network nations and micronations become important later but I doubt they'd have their routes this early.

50's - Cheap and widely available unmanned and remotely-piloted micro-aircraft (UAVs and RPVs, popularly known as drones), as well as hand-held web-connected camphones allow individuals quick and easy access to independent news channels and other media, weakening the power of states and corporations to control public perception.

I would edit this, particularly as the last point is pretty simplistic/naive. Perhaps instead we could say:

"50's - Cheap and widely available unmanned and remotely-piloted micro-aircraft (UAVs and RPVs, popularly known as drones), as well as hand-held web-connected camphones allow individuals quick and easy access to independent news channels and other media. Commercial projects are launched to investigate the potential for drones in surveying, deliveries and security. Privacy concerns grow as drones are used to spy on people at home and work, particularly celebrities

50's - Interactive video widespread.

We don't do anything with this and it's an odd point.

52 - Continued environmental degradation in some third-world countries.

Could be cut or changed to climate change an increasing problem for developing countries.

56 - Employers begin discriminating on the base of the applicants geneprint.

This is too vague, employers all around the world? Perhaps change to something more realistic and nuanced e.g.

"56 - DNA sequencing becomes cheap enough that some companies (particularly insurance) begin discriminating against their customers and employees on the basis of their genetics. Many nations outlaw this practice, others do not.

60's - Genetic modification of humans becomes increasingly accepted

Should be removed, runs counter to the later article that it's massively controversial.

61 - Despite intense protests from proponents of independent academia, the EU Parliament decides on a "unified and quality controlled" university standard. The brain drain to the US and emerging academic free states like Peru and New Zealand intensifies.

Confusing, doesn't link to anything, should be removed.

63 - Academion Island founded by Aristos, a front company of various European universities.

Not sure what this is meant to reference, probably should be removed.

63 - Start of discussions to build a permanent manned base on Luna.

Is to vague to be worthwhile.

65 - Nanoscale technology in widespread use for the manufacture of electronic equipment and other commodities; biotech continues to play an important role in the development of many poorer counties, despite political difficulties

65 - Genomic benefits result in significant extensions to life expectancies for newborns

65 - Computer power equivalent to human brain is available at consumer level prices, but suitable software lags behind. True sentient AI does not yet exist.

I think all three of these can be removed. The second two violate canon and the first is quite vague.

67 - Widespread robot development

Perhaps should be replaced by:

"60s - Onset of the so called "Robot Revolution" as increasingly sophisticated visual recognition and motor control software leads to a proliferation of custom and generalist robots. Human employment in physical labour begins a steep decline leading to economic and social unrest in countries that do not have policies to cushion the blow.

68 - Following an assassination attempt in Venezuela, Ruth Duorkin incorporates a discrete kevlar outer skin to her bodyplan.

I don't think we need such minutia about Ruth in the timeline.

60's-70's - Emerging virtual states take on increasing importance with further advances in immersive tactile VR via wired 'hotsuit' and 'Simmball' systems.

I'm not convinced that VR is a route to "Virtual States", not least on its own.

70 - New superbaby generation of child entrepreneurs force big changes to business and employment law and practices, as well as rules relating to legal maturity and asset ownership

Violates canon.

71 - The Gates ward (the "Nobel Prize of Information Technology") instituted. The first laureates are Cody J. Komarinski and Sten Houweling, responsible for the DBS algorithm in agent management.

Meaningless I think.

78 - Brief fad for Polypedal pots, robotic houseplant containers

Unnecessarily specific.

~80 - VirchMon first developed, as smart pets, companions and virus guards for frequent net-users.

Doesn't add anything.

80-85 - Biopunk movement in full swing. Human intelligence augmentation shareware becomes available

Violates canon

86-87 - Static Music and White Noise becomes the most popular form of music in the 11-24 demographic.

86 - First broadcasting of The Planet X epic-comedy-drama saga featuring the popular fictional character Morag the Moravec more.

Both add nothing.

89 - Whole Entertainment Enterprises' Mesozoic Wanderings represents a landmark interactive VR edutainment and simlife

Doesn't add anything as it stands. Could perhaps be changed to mention it was a significant experiment in A-life that had applications beyond entertainment.

90's - Megacorps begin loaning money to hard-pressed governments.

Technically companies and individuals already loan money to governments by buying bonds. Anyway, this should perhaps be replaced by:

"90's - first cases of ultra-rich individuals/corporations bailing out poor countries through purchasing large quantities of land. These incorporated states become tax Havens and sites of unregulated scientific research."

90's - Cyborg augmentations developed that allow domestic animals to understand human speech.

IT will take a lot more than a simple augmentation. Suggest removing.

92 - Jarvis Microtechnics introduces the 25 gram robot "Pocket Tractor", revolutionizes agriculture

A bit simplistic and clashes with the IRL developments of robotics in agriculture (just the other day I was watching a video about self driving tractors, robot fruit pickers and automatic weed smashers). I suggest we change it to something like

"92 - agriculture is so heavily automated that less than 0.1% of the population are employed in the industry, most by the Jarvis Microtechnics megacorp."

93 - More advanced nanomachines constructed, but many technical difficulties remain. Nevertheless things look promising. There is a new wave of venture capital investment.

This is vague and a bit meaningless.

100's - a vast "genomic gap" develops between the haves and the have-nots, those having the benefit of germline modification, tend to be consistently more intelligent, more athletic, more healthy, and more physically attractive. Yet true genius and creativity remain elusive, as the combination of genetic and environmental factors that determine them are difficult to quantify.

100 - First emergence of Genemod dating and matching services.

The first violates canon and other entries, the second is a minor and silly entry.

100's - Centralist AIs apparently use "terrorist" actions and unexplained crashes to forcefully make sure "untrustworthy" ais do not reach superturingrade.

This is a bit early for the AI factions to develop. Suggest deleting.

103 - The Static craze dies out thanks to a counter-meme created by an independent memetic engineer and Elvis Presley fan Ryu O'Connor, despite numerous lawsuits on behalf of the entertainment megacorps

Doesn't add anything.

104 - First Artificial Wombs created.

Could be expanded upon, e.g:

"104 - First healthy baby born from artificial womb in the Arizona Commercial Territories. The technology was surprisingly advanced leading to many to speculate the megacorp run area had been unethically experimenting with the technology for years. Calls to investigate lead to nothing."

106 - First recorded backup of a '.....' spore exoself

Not sure this is particularly relevant to include in the timeline.

110 - A full-scale collapse or reformation of many geopolitical states is underway; a boom in gambling; emerging virtual states take on increasing importance; major developments in Antarctica

110s - Worldwide weakening of nation states.

These say the same thing but to different degrees. Suggest replacing with:

"110s - conventional nationstates decline at an increasing (though still slow) rate as commercial, virtual and micro- states become more common"

114 - "Tweak" superbaby Marcus Alfonse Lee becomes Chairman of the Board of "High Frontier" venture startup Orbital Explorations Pty Ltd (later to be renamed Lee Interorbital) at age 12.

115 - New developments in animal cross-species gene-splicing

115 - Ken Ferjik's Micronesian Quest, a detailed historical simulation

118 - Ken Ferjik's The Himalaya Wars, another detailed historical simulation, goes online. This and his Micronesian Quest inspire many imitations.

I don't think any of these really add anything, the gene-splicing one is more soft-SF than plausible.

118 - Businesses set up space businesses, boom in space hotels and LEO flights for the wealthy, increased automation and use of robots and expert systems leads to increasing unemployment and social unrest. As the homebot industry develops and the bots become more intelligent, reactionary elements in the general public like the Kozinskites and the Friends of Ludd become increasingly alarmed at the rise of artificial intelligence and see it as a danger to humanity.

Repeats a lot of what has already been said. Should instead be changed to something more specific regarding automation, perhaps suggesting that conventional socioeconomic paradigms are shifting in the face of automation.

119 - An internet based virtual world war centered on North America which shifts a number of assets and influence from previous geopolitical and corporate powers to new players.

Doesn't ever come up and doesn't make much sense. Remove probably.

c. 120 Superturing AI (with greater than human intelligence) common.

"Common" is ambiguous. Should clarify or remove.

121 - Ken Ferjik's Pertinax successfully integrates both elements of networked gaming and roleplaying.

122 - The suborbital/intraorbital Waverider brings about a drastic reduction in the cost of space flight.

123 - Ken Ferjik's MMORPG Mother Russia further extends many of the themes and developments of the innovative Pertinax, placing networked gaming roleplaying in an epic historical simulationist perspective.

126 - Ken Ferjik's Cuba integrates his earlier work in a detailed immersive political-educational simulation.

Ken Ferjik gets far too many entries that don't at all seem of historical importance. Also space flight is already "cheap" at this time, the waverider seems unnecessary.

***

Ok that's all! Hope this helps

[Drashner1]

Thoughts and comments below. If I don't post a reply to some bit, take that to mean I'm fine with your take on it.

Speaking in general terms I think that we need to consider creating some kind of consistent policy about what does or does not make it into the timeline and how that is decided so that we don't keep running into this issue. Many of the entries here are quite old - but some are much more recent.

Perhaps we need to also discuss/consider what the role of the timeline is in the overall project/website?

31 - infamous September 11 terrorist attack on New York Twin Towers and Pentagon changes the shape of the political climate for the next half century.

I don't mind it this is cut given that the growth of the security-state in the west isn't a trend we touch on in OA.

33 - Contact with Pioneer 10 lost (February 2003 c.e.)

These are both RL historical events though. You're correct that the growth of the security state in the West isn't something we deal with directly - but we do spend a fair bit of time looking at issues around total surveillance societies and related issues. Which could (in a sense) be tied back to 911, at least in the US.

We are a spacefaring setting, so Pioneer 10 might be seen as of historical significance to one degree or another.

I'm not overly fussed if these are left out, but I think an argument can be made for keeping them.

45 - Dawn spacecraft enters orbit around Ceres.

46 - New Horizons probe reaches Pluto.

Same as above - in a spacefaring setting these are significant events. I'm not sure how we're supposed to define 'revolutionary'.

63 - Academion Island founded by Aristos, a front company of various European universities.

Not sure what this is meant to reference, probably should be removed.

It references THIS

I think that if we have an actual article relating to a timeline entry, there is more of an argument to be made for having/retaining a timeline entry.

60's-70's - Emerging virtual states take on increasing importance with further advances in immersive tactile VR via wired 'hotsuit' and 'Simmball' systems.

I'm not convinced that VR is a route to "Virtual States", not least on its own.

At this point, I'm not even sure what we mean by 'Virtual States'. We don't seem to have much of anything on it in the EG unless you count Cyberia, which doesn't show up until much much later.

I'm wondering if this is/was some sort of attempt at creating something like the artificial nation-states in the book The Diamond Age - can't remember the term used atm.

Until/unless an article is created explaining what this is and how it fits into the overall early timeline, agreed it can probably be removed.

78 - Brief fad for Polypedal pots, robotic houseplant containers

Unnecessarily specific.

~80 - VirchMon first developed, as smart pets, companions and virus guards for frequent net-users.

Doesn't add anything.

Both of these have existing EG articles - same argument as above.

86-87 - Static Music and White Noise becomes the most popular form of music in the 11-24 demographic.

86 - First broadcasting of The Planet X epic-comedy-drama saga featuring the popular fictional character Morag the Moravec more.

Both add nothing.

Static has its own EG article. The Planet X series and Morag are mentioned in passing in another EG article.

106 - First recorded backup of a '.....' spore exoself

Not sure this is particularly relevant to include in the timeline.

This has an EG article that is fairly extensive.

I don't think any of these really add anything, the gene-splicing one is more soft-SF than plausible.

Note that we do have 'Splices' in the setting, which need to be fit in somewhere if we are to retain them. This includes some number of EG entries for various splices, including some that almost certainly include dates. If they are removed from the timeline for the reason stated, then this also impact the various EG articles, which should logically also be modified in whatever way we decide to address this.

119 - An internet based virtual world war centered on North America which shifts a number of assets and influence from previous geopolitical and corporate powers to new players.

Doesn't ever come up and doesn't make much sense. Remove probably.

Has its own (admittedly short) article, which in turn has a link to a longer and more general article. Not disagreeing with your analysis, but there is more to this than just the timeline entry.

122 - The suborbital/intraorbital Waverider brings about a drastic reduction in the cost of space flight.

123 - Ken Ferjik's MMORPG Mother Russia further extends many of the themes and developments of the innovative Pertinax, placing networked gaming roleplaying in an epic historical simulationist perspective.

126 - Ken Ferjik's Cuba integrates his earlier work in a detailed immersive political-educational simulation.

Ken Ferjik gets far too many entries that don't at all seem of historical importance. Also space flight is already "cheap" at this time, the waverider seems unnecessary.[/quote]

I'm not familiar with Ken Ferjik, other than that e has an EG article. The waverider was introduced some years back before our recent update of the Tech Timeline and has a full article and a YouTube video. We should probably figure out a place for it, even if it isn't in this exact spot.

Todd

[stevebowers]

I tend to think that if an article has a date in it, that date can go into the timeline, together with a link. Not all dated events need to go into the timeline, however. This was Alan's philosophy back when he first created the timeline, which probably explains all the Ken Ferjik references (when the Ken Ferjik article was written, the timeline was almost completely bare).

We need to be a bit circumspect about how we word the entry in the timeline. so that we don't make the event out to be more important than it is (the Waverider, for instance, was one of several surface-to-orbit technologies at this time, but not necessarily the most important one).

[QwertyYerty]

Just because an event references an article isn't reason enough to keep it in the timeline. There are a lot of details in this setting, and the important events may get hidden between the less important events.